I bet you didn’t know that Summer starts in April. Well, at least it does for the movie season. Marvel studios moved Avengers: Infinity War up into April and that forced us all to get ready a little earlier than we had planned. For the second year in a row my friend Conrado and I have gotten together to share our predictions for this year’s Summer box office. You can listen to the podcast above or on itunes/youtube.
I must admit my list is kind of bland this year. Last year I had a few more odd ball/risky picks but nothing stood out to me as a real dark horse or wild card pick. There are a few that could possibly make it like Mamma Mia 2, Eighth Grade, Christopher Robin, Teen Titans Go or Uncle Drew but I don’t see them as big challenges. We will see.
My Top 10 Summer 2018 Box Office Predictions
Avengers: Infinity War
Jurassic World 2: Fallen Kingdom
Ant-Man and the wasp
Mission Impossible: Fall Out
Hotel Transylvania 3
You’ll have to listen to the podcast to learn why we picked what we picked and how our lists compare We would love your feedback. Thanks!
Anyone who follows this blog knows I am notoriously bad at predicting the box office, but nevertheless it is still fun to take a crack at it- especially at the beginning of the big summer season. Last year I got 6/10 right with misses from TMNT: Out of the Shadows, Independence Day Resurgence, Pete’s Dragon and Sausage Party.
Last year I just went with my gut feelings where this year I have actually done some research. It will be interesting to see which method fairs better.
My predictions are based on domestic grosses not international because many movies are released out of the summer internationally.
So here is my predictions for 2017 Summer Box Office:
Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2- There is so much enthusiasm for this movie. People literally cheer in the theater when a trailer comes on. The first film did surprisingly well and this will do even better. I think it will open at 175 million similar to Beauty and the Beast and it will have legs. Baby Groot!
Despicable Me 3- Summer 2014 only had 1 animated film in the top 10 and 2017 will be the same. Illumination has not had a miss at the box office yet and nearly every child I know is looking forward to DM3.
Spider-Man Homecoming- The Amazing Spider-man 2 made $202 million despite it not being very good. This film is coming off of Civil War that people loved. It has Iron Man in it, Michael Keaton as the villain and a new younger Peter Parker. It will do very well
Transformers 5- The last Transformers movie made $245 million domestic despite it being awful and having terrible predecessors. Last Knight has Transformers, King Arthur, Nazis and time travel so there’s no reason to think this will be any less successful.
Wonder Woman- I know some are cynical about DC but despite the last 3 entries not being very good they still made a lot of money including Suicide Squad that was barely a movie. Wonder Woman has had good trailers and will hopefully appeal to both boys and girls
War of the Planet of the Apes- The last Apes movie made $208 million and this looks fantastic. I can’t wait for it so I think it will do very well!
The Mummy- This is a bit of a risk because Tom Cruise had a misfire with Jack Reacher 2 and Dracula Untold didn’t do well. But I’m thinking this will draw in the Mission Impossible crowd with its stunts and scope.
Dunkirk- Interstellar made $188 million and this looks to be more of a traditional narrative from Christopher Nolan. He is the big draw here because it does seem like an odd release date for what should be an Oscar season movie?
Baywatch- Last year the Rock did well for me with Central Intelligence so I’m betting on him again. He has so much charisma and promotes his films so much. A big factor on this film is if it is funny or not. We’ll see.
Rough Night- There are 3 raunchy female-led comedies this summer, so I have to believe one of them will crack the top 10. My pick is Rough Night with Scarlet Johansson and Kate McKinnon. Bad Moms made $179 million and this will do similarly well.
Dark Horse Contenders- All Eyez on Me, Captain Underpants, Cars 3, Emoji Movie, Baby Driver, Atomic Blonde, Pirates 5, Snatched, Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, Alien Covenant
Obviously it won’t make the top 10 but I am hopeful the documentary STEP does well for a documentary. They just released the trailer and it has a lot of hits for an indie doc. I just love it so much!
My friend Conrado just put up his summer box office predictions. You can read them here. I’m normally awful at box office predictions but the more we discussed it I figured I should offer up my best guess just for fun and give my reasons for my guesses.
Captain America: Civil War– it opened huge and even bigger overseas. It will cross the 1 billion mark before weekend 2 and there is no competition then. Movies people like have had great legs this year (Zootopia, Deadpool, Jungle Book) so I think it could even do well against Alice and X-Men which I think will underpreform.
Finding Dory- all of Pixar’s sequels have done well and this is to a beloved classic, Finding Nemo. You have a celebrity voice cast who are going to promote including Ellen with her platform. I can’t imagine it doing badly. It would have to get totally panned by critics to keep people away and that seems unlikely (even dreaded Good Dinosaur has a 74% on RT).
Suicide Squad- people love the Joker and have responded well to the trailers. I could see a backlash from Batman v Superman but it seems like everyone is pulling for this to be the savior of DC.
TMNT: Out of the Shadows– The first one made a ton of money and Michael Bay associated films seem to be critic proof and always do well at box office. This one has fan favorites Krang and Bebop and Rocksteady.
Independence Day: Resurgence- We are in a nostalgia age and I think people will flock to what I’m sure will be a dopey, fun popcorn flick.
Jason Bourne- This movie has everything going for it. Matt Damon back and Paul Greengrass directing. I have a feeling it will get good reviews and people will want to see it. Plus, it comes out a weekend where the only other major opening film is Bad Moms. Look at what Matt Damon just did in The Martian and this is an established brand. It will do very well.
Central Intelligence– All you have to do is look at Kevin Hart’s Ride Along and The Rock’s San Andreas and we know this movie is going to do well. San Andreas was so stupid and yet it did very well and people like Hart’s comedies. The two of them should be critic proof.
Secret Life of Pets- I debated whether to put this one or the next Ice Age movie because those do so well overseas. Illumination is a marketing machine and I think people like movies about pets. It will be interesting to see how Illumination does without the comfort of the Despicable Me characters.
Pete’s Dragon- This is a bit of a risk but Disney has already hired the director of Pete’s Dragon for their Peter Pan project which shows they have some faith in the film. And it’s main competition the weekend it comes out is Sausage Party. These Disney remakes have just done so well, and I think this one will continue the trend.
Sausage Party- Speaking of Sausage Party this is my risky pick. I just saw the amount of money an R rated comedy, Deadpool, made and I think Sausage Party could follow suit. Kids see Pete’s Dragon. Adults see Sausage Party. It has a lot of big names in the cast and the trailer was received very well.
There’s a bunch of big ones I left off my list. I’ll explain why.
X-Men Apocalypse- pains me to say it but the reviews have not been good. X-Men movies have never done as well as MCU films and I think people will keep going to see other established films like we saw with Jungle Book or Zootopia already this year.
Alice Through the Looking Glass- same with Alice. Reviews don’t look good and I don’t think this is critic proof. The first movie made a ton of money but that was in the hey-day of 3D which is kind of old hat now. I hear very few people buzzing about it and when I suggested it for Church Movie Night there was an audible groan.
Ghostbusters– This had the most disliked trailer in youtube history. I think it will be the Pixels of this year. Good in concept with a decent director and it bombs.
Ben Hur- See box office for Point Break remake. People don’t want this and sword and sandles have not been doing well (see Gods of Egypt box office).
Kubo and the 2 Strings– I desperately want this film to do well and be Liaka’s first huge hit but audiences have shown themselves resistant to non-CG animated films. The only one to do any business despite being fantastic is last year’s Spongebob: Sponge Out of Water and that was only because it was advertised as CG. It’s sad but true.
Star Trek Beyond- This does come out on a good week with only Ice Age: Collision Course as competition, but I don’t feel any buzz or excitement about it. I feel like a lot of people didn’t like the last entry and aren’t excited about this one. Plus, marketing has been lame.
BFG- This is a wild card and I think it will do well but I couldn’t fit it into my top 10. There’s so much family entertainment this summer. It has Steven Spielberg behind it but no major stars like a Tom Hanks. I feel like it is one of Roald Dahl’s lesser-known books. Critics will make a big factor in this ones success I think.
Legend of Tarzan– It comes out the same weekend as BFG so one of them could soar and one sink. I don’t think both will do well. The trailers look good but it couldn’t make my top 10.
So there you go. Now watch me totally be proven wrong as is usually the case with box office predictions! What are your top 10 predictions? Share in the comments section.