Summer Box Office Predictions

summer 2016

My friend Conrado just put up his summer box office predictions. You can read them here.  I’m normally awful at box office predictions but the more we discussed it I figured I should offer up my best guess just for fun and give my reasons for my guesses.

Here goes!

  1. Captain America: Civil War it opened huge and even bigger overseas. It will cross the 1 billion mark before weekend 2 and there is no competition then. Movies people like have had great legs this year (Zootopia, Deadpool, Jungle Book) so I think it could even do well against Alice and X-Men which I think will underpreform.
  2. Finding Dory- all of Pixar’s sequels have done well and this is to a beloved classic, Finding Nemo. You have a celebrity voice cast who are going to promote including Ellen with her platform. I can’t imagine it doing badly. It would have to get totally panned by critics to keep people away and that seems unlikely (even dreaded Good Dinosaur has a 74% on RT).
  3. Suicide Squad- people love the Joker and have responded well to the trailers. I could see a backlash from Batman v Superman but it seems like everyone is pulling for this to be the savior of DC.
  4. TMNT: Out of the Shadows– The first one made a ton of money and Michael Bay associated films seem to be critic proof and always do well at box office. This one has fan favorites Krang and Bebop and Rocksteady.
  5. Independence Day: Resurgence- We are in a nostalgia age and I think people will flock to what I’m sure will be a dopey, fun popcorn flick.
  6. Jason Bourne- This movie has everything going for it. Matt Damon back and Paul Greengrass directing. I have a feeling it will get good reviews and people will want to see it. Plus, it comes out a weekend where the only other major opening film is Bad Moms. Look at what Matt Damon just did in The Martian and this is an established brand. It will do very well.
  7. Central Intelligence– All you have to do is look at Kevin Hart’s Ride Along and The Rock’s San Andreas and we know this movie is going to do well. San Andreas was so stupid and yet it did very well and people like Hart’s comedies. The two of them should be critic proof.
  8. Secret Life of Pets- I debated whether to put this one or the next Ice Age movie because those do so well overseas. Illumination is a marketing machine and I think people like movies about pets. It will be interesting to see how Illumination does without the comfort of the Despicable Me characters.
  9. Pete’s Dragon- This is a bit of a risk but Disney has already hired the director of Pete’s Dragon for their Peter Pan project which shows they have some faith in the film. And it’s main competition the weekend it comes out is Sausage Party. These Disney remakes have just done so well, and I think this one will continue the trend.
  10. Sausage Party- Speaking of Sausage Party this is my risky pick. I just saw the amount of money an R rated comedy, Deadpool, made and I think Sausage Party could follow suit. Kids see Pete’s Dragon. Adults see Sausage Party. It has a lot of big names in the cast and the trailer was received very well.

There’s a bunch of big ones I left off my list. I’ll explain why.

X-Men Apocalypse- pains me to say it but the reviews have not been good. X-Men movies have never done as well as MCU films and I think people will keep going to see other established films like we saw with Jungle Book or Zootopia already this year.

Alice Through the Looking Glass- same with Alice. Reviews don’t look good and I don’t think this is critic proof. The first movie made a ton of money but that was in the hey-day of 3D which is kind of old hat now. I hear very few people buzzing about it and when I suggested it for Church Movie Night there was an audible groan.

Ghostbusters– This had the most disliked trailer in youtube history. I think it will be the Pixels of this year. Good in concept with a decent director and it bombs.

Ben Hur- See box office for Point Break remake. People don’t want this and sword and sandles have not been doing well (see Gods of Egypt box office).

Kubo and the 2 Strings– I desperately want this film to do well and be Liaka’s first huge hit but audiences have shown themselves resistant to non-CG animated films. The only one to do any business despite being fantastic is last year’s Spongebob: Sponge Out of Water and that was only because it was advertised as CG. It’s sad but true.

Star Trek Beyond- This does come out on a good week with only Ice Age: Collision Course as competition, but I don’t feel any buzz or excitement about it. I feel like a lot of people didn’t like the last entry and aren’t excited about this one. Plus, marketing has been lame.

BFG- This is a wild card and I think it will do well but I couldn’t fit it into my top 10. There’s so much family entertainment this summer. It has Steven Spielberg behind it but no major stars like a Tom Hanks. I feel like it is one of Roald Dahl’s lesser-known books. Critics will make a big factor in this ones success I think.

Legend of Tarzan– It comes out the same weekend as BFG so one of them could soar and one sink. I don’t think both will do well. The trailers look good but it couldn’t make my top 10.

So there you go. Now watch me totally be proven wrong as is usually the case with box office predictions! What are your top 10 predictions? Share in the comments section.

22 thoughts on “Summer Box Office Predictions

  1. What about Magnificent Seven? Or doesn’t it fall into the summer season? If it does, it certainly would be a candidate, Chris Pratt alone will ensure that.

    I think Independence Day will do better than expected, and I have the feeling the Kubo has an off-chance. The trailer look impressive, it should speak to the Asian audience and Laika has built a little bit of a reputation. I think if Boxtrolls had gotten better reviews and hadn’t look like a version of Tarzan, it would have also done better in theatres. Kubo certainly has the interest of the animation community, so it might have a shot.

    1. Oh, and I think that Pete’s Dragon will bomb. The made a big mistake with the design of the Dragon, apparently not understanding that the fanbase of the movie loves above all Eliot. It’s like getting suddenly a version of Micky Mouse which looks more like an actual mouse.

      1. It could but just looking at what else is out that weekend and I dont think a majority is that attached to the original. If you look at Maleficent, Alice in Wonderland and even Jungle Book people don’t seem to mind when serious changes are made to original properties in these remakes. That was a risk but I think either that or BFG will be in top 10

      2. Fair enough. This summer is probably the most stacked ever for family movies so some of them will tank. It’s just a matter of which one.

      3. Now that I’ve heard the BFG buzz out of Cannes I swap that in and take Pete’s Dragon out

    2. I hope so. Westerns are usually tough sells so that’s why I didnt go with Magnificent 7

    1. You have to look at what else is out during that time. That’s why I think it could do well

    2. What are your guesses for top 10? I feel the bottom several of the list are always the hardest to predict

  2. I really do hope will Sausage Party be a success so it can prove to major Hollywood studios that animated films don’t just have to family films in order to make money. The movie has the potential to be a massive game changer and I really hope it delivers.

  3. I had no idea there was going to be another Bourne movie. I can get excited for anything featuring Matt Damon. 😉 Aside from seeing my favorite eye candy on the list, I haven’t seen anything I’m super excited about this summer. It takes a lot to get me to go listen to other people eat while I watch a movie though. *shudder*

  4. We did a podcast on May 1st where I presented my picks:

    This is out 5th year doing this. There is more info about the contest on the podcast.

    To spare you some time I will list my picks here: 😉

    1. Captain America: Civil War
    2. Finding Dory
    3. Independence Day: Resurgence
    4. Suicide Squad
    5. X-Men: Apocalypse
    6. Secret Life of Pets, The
    7. Jason Bourne
    8. Star Trek Beyond
    9. Alice Through the Looking Glass
    10. Ice Age: Collision Course

    Dark Horse Picks:
    Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows
    Ghostbusters (2016)
    BFG, The

    Not too many surprises in your picks. Biggest shock is Sausage Party. 9 of us submitted lists and that was never even mentioned. I admire the risk taking!

    You put TMNT: Out of the Shadows really high too. Typically it would have to do around $250 million to hit #4. It’s possible, but it has to outgross the 2014 one by almost 60 million. I hated the last film so maybe I’m biased.

    Love this post!

    1. Oh cool! I didn’t know you did a podcast. I love podcasts. I think with TMNT I just look at Michael Bay associated films and this one has Bebop, Rocksteady and Krang. I think it will do very well but I may have it too high. Sausage Party is a risk but I just feel like there’s a real market for R rated comedies right now. Star Trek Beyond is the real wild card. I think it will be this years Terminator Genisys.
      But like I said I’m notoriously awful at this. How do you think Central Intelligence will do? The Rock and Kevin Hart seem a very profitable combination to me.

      1. I’m thinking it’ll do around $100 million which would place it out of the top 10. Still a profitable hit though.

      2. You could be right. Seems like there is always a big summer comedy like Ted or Spy. I’m banking on Central Intelligence and Sausage Party but I could be way off

  5. Such a wild variety of movies. Some I’m genuinely a cited about. Other look like absolute stinkers. It should be a fun and interesting summer.

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