Anyone who follows this blog knows I am notoriously bad at predicting the box office, but nevertheless it is still fun to take a crack at it- especially at the beginning of the big summer season. Last year I got 6/10 right with misses from TMNT: Out of the Shadows, Independence Day Resurgence, Pete’s Dragon and Sausage Party.
Last year I just went with my gut feelings where this year I have actually done some research. It will be interesting to see which method fairs better.
My predictions are based on domestic grosses not international because many movies are released out of the summer internationally.
So here is my predictions for 2017 Summer Box Office:
- Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2- There is so much enthusiasm for this movie. People literally cheer in the theater when a trailer comes on. The first film did surprisingly well and this will do even better. I think it will open at 175 million similar to Beauty and the Beast and it will have legs. Baby Groot!
- Despicable Me 3- Summer 2014 only had 1 animated film in the top 10 and 2017 will be the same. Illumination has not had a miss at the box office yet and nearly every child I know is looking forward to DM3.
- Spider-Man Homecoming- The Amazing Spider-man 2 made $202 million despite it not being very good. This film is coming off of Civil War that people loved. It has Iron Man in it, Michael Keaton as the villain and a new younger Peter Parker. It will do very well
- Transformers 5- The last Transformers movie made $245 million domestic despite it being awful and having terrible predecessors. Last Knight has Transformers, King Arthur, Nazis and time travel so there’s no reason to think this will be any less successful.
- Wonder Woman- I know some are cynical about DC but despite the last 3 entries not being very good they still made a lot of money including Suicide Squad that was barely a movie. Wonder Woman has had good trailers and will hopefully appeal to both boys and girls
- War of the Planet of the Apes- The last Apes movie made $208 million and this looks fantastic. I can’t wait for it so I think it will do very well!
- The Mummy- This is a bit of a risk because Tom Cruise had a misfire with Jack Reacher 2 and Dracula Untold didn’t do well. But I’m thinking this will draw in the Mission Impossible crowd with its stunts and scope.
- Dunkirk- Interstellar made $188 million and this looks to be more of a traditional narrative from Christopher Nolan. He is the big draw here because it does seem like an odd release date for what should be an Oscar season movie?
- Baywatch- Last year the Rock did well for me with Central Intelligence so I’m betting on him again. He has so much charisma and promotes his films so much. A big factor on this film is if it is funny or not. We’ll see.
- Rough Night- There are 3 raunchy female-led comedies this summer, so I have to believe one of them will crack the top 10. My pick is Rough Night with Scarlet Johansson and Kate McKinnon. Bad Moms made $179 million and this will do similarly well.
Dark Horse Contenders- All Eyez on Me, Captain Underpants, Cars 3, Emoji Movie, Baby Driver, Atomic Blonde, Pirates 5, Snatched, Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, Alien Covenant
Obviously it won’t make the top 10 but I am hopeful the documentary STEP does well for a documentary. They just released the trailer and it has a lot of hits for an indie doc. I just love it so much!
Current (DOM) Predictions
GOTG – $400m+
Spidey – $350m+
DM3 – $300m+
WW – $300m+
Dunkirk – $220m+
Apes – $200m+
Cars 3 – $180m+
TF5 – $180m+
POTC5 – $160m+
Mummy – $120m+
Thanks for sharing your picks
GotG Vol 2 will win the summer. With everything else I guess we have to wait and see…especially for the reviews.
Oh, domestic only… :/
#1 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 – Agreed. & It’s likely to gross 1 billion worldwide.
I think your prediction domestic opening weekend of $175 million is a little high though. I’m thinking 155, maybe 160. Somewhere in the 400’s [million] domestic total, I think.
#2 DESPICABLE ME 3 – Agreed. It will hit 1 billion worldwide, I think.
Somewhere in the 300’s [million] domestic total, I think.
#3 Spider-Man: Homecoming – Agreed. It will do somewhere in the $800’s [million] worldwide, I think
Low 300’s [million] domestic total, I think.
#4 WONDER WOMAN – Agreed. Hopefully the second win for women in 2017 (maybe third if ‘The Circle’ does well), after ‘Beauty and the Beast’. I have a feeling it will get good reviews (trailers were good). & No DC films (minus ‘The Green Lantern’) have flopped yet. My realistic guess is that it will make roughly $744 million worldwide (just below ‘Suicide Squad’). I really hope it’s good & does well at the Box Office.
200’s [million] domestic total, I think.
#5 DUNKIRK – Christopher Nolan. Dark Knight trilogy, Inception & Interstellar did very well. There’s a prestigious cast – Tom Hardy, Kenneth Branagh & Mark Rylance. Plus Harry Styles. PG-13 rating will help it also. I expect it to do similar Box Office to Steven Spielberg & Tom Hanks’s ‘Saving Private Ryan’. About $500 million worldwide, I think. Also this will likely be the film that finally earns Nolan his Best Director Oscar (& maybe even Best Picture).
200’s [million] domestic total, I think.
#6 PIRATES of the Caribbean (5): Dead Men Tell No Tales – I think it will do well. Mainly overseas, especially in Asia. Also worth mentioning two out of the four Pirates films have grossed 1 billion.
Somewhere in the 200’s [million] domestic total, I think.
#7 CARS 3 – Both Cars films did well at the Box Office. & Cars merchandise and toys are (surprisingly) strong. Then the trailers were surprisingly good & well received. Also it’s Pixar (with the exception of recent, ‘The Good Dinosaur’) all their films do good. I’m predicting $554 million worldwide for ‘Cars 3’, about on par with ‘Cars 2’ (more than Cars 1).
200’s [million] domestic total, I think.
#8 War for the Planet of the Apes – The Apes films are good, and do well at the Box Office. Though I think the ad campaign has been weak for this film. The trailers were good & well received. But there wasn’t enough marketing content. So I’m not really feeling/seeing a huge amount of hype. Maybe I’ll be surprised. I think War will make about the same as Dawn, maybe even a little lower. So roughly $700 million worldwide.
200’s [million] domestic total (like it’s predecessors), I think.
#9 Transformers: The Last Knight – I have a feeling (I hope I’m right!) this film will under-perform. I don’t think it will do 1 billion worldwide. Though never underestimate Asia (just look at ‘Warcraft’ & ‘Xxx’). The ad campaign has been bad, and not very well received. Also the Nazi and Feminism stuff added may hurt this film. We’ll see. The last two Transformers films were awful and yet, grossed 1 billion.
$170 million domestic total, I think.
#10 ATOMIC BLONDE – I think it will do better than both John Wick movies. It will be like a ‘Kingsman: The Secret Service’ level grosser at the Box Office, I think.
This will be a competitive Summer!
Dark Horse Contenders: Alien: Covenant, The Mummy, Baywatch, Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, & The Emoji Movie.
Great picks. I could definitely see all of those hitting big
🙂
Your list is pretty spot on! Top 6 includes the exact same films I picked, slightly different order, although 1 and 2 are identical. It’s so different from what you had let me to believe you would include.
– You were so positive about Captain Underpants so I expected to see that on your list.
– Ditto Cars 3 which I do think will make the Top 10.
– Thought you were more positive on Wonder Woman. Much lower than where I thought you would place it.
– It’s nice to see you acknowledge the power of the Despicable Me movies. I know you don’t like those films so when you put together your “biggest hit of summer 2017” poll and didn’t even include the film, I figured you were letting personal feelings cloud your judgment. It may not be #1, but it should be pretty big. Every kid I know (and quite a few adults) is excited about that film.
– Dunkirk is hard to predict. I think it’ll do well but I’m thinking around $120M which wouldn’t be enough to make Top 10.
– Rough Night is a bold choice, but I like that you put in a surprise there. I’m thinking Alien: Covenant for that spot.
Overall a very solid list in my opinion. I’m guesting on a podcast April 30th with my predictions. 🙂
Now I’m really curious to see your list and listen to the podcast. I believe I said in our discussions that animation is very hard to predict. I mean I never thought Boss Baby would do so well! You’d be a fool to vote against Illumination but the rest I think will be solid hits but just outside of top 10. I feel like there is always a surprise comedy so I went on a limb with Rough Night and Baywatch but we will see. I am excited for Wonder Woman but it’s a tough one to predict with DC films underperforming a bit and the first female superhero movie in a long time. Will young men the genre focuses on go and see Wonder Woman?
I tried to put my bias mostly to the side and research this time so it’s interesting to hear Dunkirk out of your top 10. I honestly forgot about Alien Covenant until someone mentioned it in the comments. Oops