It’s like a rite of passage in film community that you’ve got to give your Oscar predictions. I am also going to note the snubs and nominations I think are nonsense. I will say I a notoriously awful at this so don’t put too much money on my predictions.
Best Picture- I have seen all of the nominees and I think The Revenant will win.
Out of this list I think Spotlight is leagues above the rest. I’d order them like- Spotlight, The Martian, Brooklyn, Mad Max Fury Road, The Big Short, Room, The Revenant, Bridge of Spies.
I would have nominated Inside Out for best picture as I think it was the most emotional (forgive the pun) and innovative film of the year. I also think Carol and Ex-Machina would have been worthy entries (and of course I love Star Wars: The Force Awakens but who are we kidding. It didn’t stand a chance of being nominated).
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant (will win)
Room
Spotlight (dark horse)
Best Director- I think Inarritu will win for The Revenant because the academy loves him and the movie was hard to make (so are lots of movies. That doesn’t mean it deserves to win. I mean Mad Max was a nightmare to make).
Dark horse is George Miller who would be my pick.
I would have loved to see Pete Docter in here for Inside Out (no, all my snubs won’t be for Inside Out). I think Todd Haynes not getting nominated for Carol was a real snub.
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road- dark horse
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant (will win)
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Best Actor- I haven’t seen Danish Girl or Trumbo. I think Leonardo DiCaprio will win for The Revenant and I am fine with that.
I am fine with the list although I loved Michael B Jordan in Creed.
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (will win)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (dark horse)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Best Actress- I haven’t seen 45 Years but the rest are great performances. It’s a race between Brie Larson and Cate Blanchett. Oscar loves Blanchett and she is great in Carol. But Oscar also loves to honor new performers in this category so I say Brie Larson will win.
Charlize Theron in Mad Max Fury Road and Carey Mulligan in Far From the Maddening Crowd would have been nice to see.
Cate Blanchett, Carol- dark horse
Brie Larson, Room (will win)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Best Supporting Actor- Great list. I think Sylvester Stallone will win.
Mark Rylance from Bridge of Spies is the dark horse and I’d be ok with him winning even though wasn’t nuts for the film. Mark Ruffalo would be my pick for Spotlight.
Idris Elba from Beasts of No Nation is the snub I’ve heard about but I have not see the film. Also Steve Carrell should have been nominated not Christian Bale for The Big Short.
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies- dark horse
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (will win)
Best Supporting Actress- I have not seen Danish Girl or Hateful Eight. I’m still going with Kate Winslet for the win with strong chance of Rooney Mara for Carol. She’s good but it’s not a supporting performance. Winslet is so good in Steve Jobs.
Only real snub is I think Alicia Vikander should have been nominated for Ex-Machina.
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol- dark horse
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (will win)
Best Original Screenplay- I haven’t seen Straight Outta Compton. I clearly would pick Inside Out and think Bridge of Spies screenplay was actually really weak. It drops storylines and only has 2 developed characters, but as I seem to be one of the only one’s who realizes that it gets the nomination. I think Spotlight will win this one.
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina- dark horse
Inside Out
Spotlight (will win)
Straight Outta Compton
Best Adapted Screenplay- I’ve seen all of these films and I think The Big Short will win with an outside chance for Brooklyn and Carol. I personally would give it to Brooklyn.
Big snub on this is Steve Jobs; although, if I’m honest I’m kind of glad as I think Aaron Sorkin is a bit overrated and writes mostly one-note characters.
The Big Short (will win)
Brooklyn dark horse
Carol- dark horse
The Martian
Room
Best Animated Feature- I’ve seen all of these films and they are all worthy nominees. I think Inside Out will win with Anomalisa being the dark horse.
The obvious snub is The Peanuts Movie, which I think is better than Boy and the World. It is certainly less heavy handed and preachy. Plus, what it did with hybrid animation should have been recognized.
I also think Good Dinosaur for it’s stunning animation should have gotten a nomination over Anomalisa although they are such different films it’s hard to compare them.
Anomalisa- dark horse
Boy and the World
Inside Out (will win)
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
Best Foreign Language Film- Haven’t seen any of these but only one I’ve heard any buzz on is Son of Saul and Hollywood loves Holocaust movies.
Embrace of the Serpent
Mustang
Son of Saul (will win)
Theeb
A War
Best Documentary Feature- Only seen Amy but this is between Amy and Cartel Land. As I find Amy to be very overrated I would love for Cartel Land to win but it probably will go to Amy.
Amy (will win)
Cartel Land- dark horse
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
Best Cinematography- The Revenant will win with an outside chance for Sicario to reward Roger Deakins. I loved the cinematography in Far From the Maddening Crowd and in Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant (will win)
Sicario- dark horse
Best Film Editing- This is between The Big Short and Mad Max Fury Road. I would give it to Mad Max and I think it will win. The editing in that film was amazing.
The Big Short- dark horse
Mad Max: Fury Road (will win)
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Production Design- This one is a tough one to predict. I think this might be Bridge of Spies win, which I would be ok with as the film looked great. The fact that The Revenant beat out Brooklyn and Carol in this category is complete nonsense. I wouldn’t be surprised if The Revenant won for designing great snow and about 15 minutes of set and props. Nonsense.
Out of these nominees The Martian is my clear favorite; although I have not seen The Danish Girl.
Bridge of Spies (will win)
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road- dark horse
The Martian- dark horse
The Revenant- dark horse
Best Costume Design- I think Carol will win this one although I could see Cinderella winning.
Only snub is Far From the Maddening Crowd for costumes.
Carol (will win)
Cinderella- dark horse
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Best Original Score- I think Ennio Morricone will win for the Hateful 8. He’s a legend and the music is great. I’m fine with all these nominees although I love the music in When Marnie was There and Inside Out.
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight (will win)
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens- dark horse (never count out John Williams)
Best Original Song- I think Writing on the Wall will win for Spectre.
I would have nominated Fine on the Outside from When Marnie was There and When I See You Again from Furious 7.
“Earned It,” 50 Shades Of Grey
“Manta Ray,” Racing Extinction
“Simple Song #3,” Youth
“Til It Happens to You,” The Hunting Ground- dark horse
“Writing’s on the Wall,” Spectre (will win)
Best Visual Effects- Great list. I think this will be Star Wars win and it is deserved. Ex-Machina or The Revenant could be the dark horse.
I think Ant-Man could have been nominated but I like all of the nominees in this category.
Ex Machina- dark horse
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant- dark horse
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (will win)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling- Why only 3 nominees? Far from the Maddening Crowd, Cinderella, Carol, Star Wars all had terrific makeup. If it is the Revenant’s night than it will probably win although between the 2 I’d pick Mad Max.
I actually think for hairstyling Jupiter Ascending should have been nominated.
Mad Max- dark horse
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out a Window and Disappeared
The Revenant (will win)
Best Sound Mixing- These are all pretty good nominees. Mad Max Fury Road is my best guess but I can see any of them being a dark horse winner. My favorite would be the sounds created for Star Wars.
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road (will win)
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens- dark horse
Best Sound Editing- These sound similar but they really aren’t. I think Mad Max will take this one. Star Wars or The Revenant could be dark horse.
Mad Max: Fury Road- (will win)
The Martian
The Revenant- dark horse
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens- dark horse
Best Documentary Short- Haven’t seen any of them so just guessing on this one.
Body Team 12
Chau Behind the Lines
Claude Lanzman
A Girl in the River
Last Day of Freedom- will win
Best Live Action Short Film- Haven’t seen any of them so just guessing on this one (wish Academy would make the shorts available to more theaters)
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay
Shok (will win)
Stutterer
Best Animated Short Film- I have seen all of these films! I think World of Tomorrow will win. It’s been available on Netflix and the academy actually has been pretty artsy in this category. Pixar surprisingly hasn’t won that many times.
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay’s Super Team- dark horse
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow- (will win)
I’m glad to know i wasn’t the only one that thought far from the madding crowd should have been nominated. Best actress will be a tough one this year. I think Brie Larson deserves the win, especially when Cate Blanchett should have been nominated for best supporting actress and rooney mara for best actress.
Yeah, I kind of feel frustrated by Room because I want more of Brie Larson’s character in the final 3rd. I feel like I wish I saw her struggles more and less of Jack once they escape but she’s great. I’d be happy with her winning.
Funny, my mom and I were just talking about how Steve Carrell should’ve gotten in over Christian Bale! Actually, then I would want Carrell to win, Carrell’s performance in Big Short may be a major favorite of mine from last year’s movies! Also, you’re not totally alone on the Bridge of Spies thing! The script didn’t stick out at all, which after seeing three Coen Brothers movies (Llewyn Davis, Hail Caeser, and Fargo) I’m actually surprised by that even more now! It was so ‘in-one-ear-and-out-the-other’ whereas something like Llewyn has the kind of script where every line of dialogue is something you want to cling to and unravel the depths of. Also, I personally think Cinderella should win costume design even though it probably won’t.
Cinderella should win best costume design. I agree with you about Steve carrell as well
It really is puzzling about Bale over Carrell. I don’t get that one? Is it just because Bale’s character was autistic? Cinderella has a pretty good shot of winning but last year I was so bad. I think I predicted like 4 wins…
World of tomorrow was my favorite animated film but i think Pixars Sanjay super team will win that category. Prologue was fantastic and i do hope this wins this year, especially when it was a sole animator and took the short film 12 years.
Actually Pixar doesn’t have that great a track record in that category. La luna was beat by Fantastic Flying Books, Day and Night was beat by The Lost Thing, Presto was beat by La Maison en Petits Cubes etc. Believe it or not they actually haven’t won Best Animated Short since For the Birds in 2001! Prologue was good but World of Tomorrow was more widely available and was so bold (I honestly don’t quite get it and would love to hear your insight on it).
That’s true and you make a good point. I loved the witty and sad humor of world of tomorrow. It was about future emily coming back to tell alpha emily about the future and its fate. She also wanted to retrieve a memory of her with her mother. I wanted to know why she didn’t go back to the moon to see simon.again
See I’ve seen it twice and somehow missed a lot of that. I got that it was a person from the future explaining it to a little girl but was kind of lost. Need to dissect it more thoroughly.
It was her future self. I think 3 generations.
Oh! I wish I could watch it with you!
That’s why I havent reviewed it. I can tell it’s brilliant but for some reason I’m not getting it. Makes me feel kind of dumb!
You shouldn’t feel that way. Its explained when she talks about being impregnated and three copies of her are made.
Awesome! It looks like we have a lot of similar predictions, at least more so than the past years (or at least from what I remember).
Ah oh. I usually do really bad so may be bad sign for you 😉
Oh darn, lol! My best has been 14/24 during the Oscars for 2013 films.
I think the only win The Revenant has in the bag is best Cinematography. And yes, we all want the Leonardo DiCaprio finally gets his award, so hopefully he will get it. It is time. But otherwise, I have the feeling that it won’t get a lot of love. The race for best picture is tight, but I have the feeling that Spotlight is slightly ahead.
Best costume, I think Cinderella has a really good chance, but there is always the chance that they go for Mad Max.
I hope you are right!
You called it. Suffice it to say I was much happier with this year’s winners than last.
Well, the Oscars are not really about who is the best, but which win offers the best narrative. Shooting a gorgeous movie while only using natural lighting? Mad Max never stood a chance to take the price in Cinematography, even though it looks great, too. Leonardo finally getting the award? Most of the buzz was about him. But for best picture, Spotlight is the more “edgy” choice (not in the sense that it is edgy for the voters, but that it is the choice the voters would consider edgy).
I think you’re right on
Hey would you have any interest in contributing to a series on the Disney Canon we are doing for Rotoscopers.com? I am trying to find someone to write about Dumbo and I know it is a favorite of yours.
What exactly do you have in Mind?
It’s starting May 20th and a bunch of us writers are reviewing the entire WDAS canon with reviews on Mondays and Fridays leading all the way up to Moana. I’d still have to get it approved but I’m confident they would be cool with you. Here’s the kind of review in a series we did on the Oscar shorts. http://www.rotoscopers.com/2016/02/25/we-cant-live-without-cosmos-review/ . 700ish words.
You would just email it to me and I would upload it to the site.
I would also have liked Inside Out to be nominated for Best Picture, given that I thought it was better than the other two Pixar films which have been nominated in recent years. It’s pretty amazing that Mad Max: Fury Road was nominated, though of course that’s not going to win.
Eddie Redmayne is probably Leo’s biggest competition for Best Actor, but I hope Leo does get it. He just won the Best Actor BAFTA so that’s a good sign.
Yeah or Michael Fassbender but there hasnt been much momentum for Steve Jobs or his performance. I think it is Leo’s year but I’m usually wrong on these things